How Technical Infrastructure Could Unlock Trillions in US Technology Exports

The $1.3 trillion Stargate deal sits at the intersection of two powerful forces shaping American AI policy. On one side, Congressional leaders are calling for stricter export controls—House Select Committee Chairman John Moolenaar's recent letter to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick outlines eight specific requirements for limiting AI diffusion while maintaining security. On the other side, OpenAI's launch of "OpenAI for Countries" signals the industry's push for aggressive global expansion.

These forces appear contradictory: more controls versus more diffusion. But technology creates a third path where both vectors align. The right verification infrastructure doesn't just enable stricter controls—it enables more exports by providing the security assurance that makes large-scale partnerships possible. Instead of choosing between growth and security, hardware-governed compute makes both achievable simultaneously.

The Congressional Framework: Eight Pillars of AI Export Policy

Chairman Moolenaar's letter to Secretary Lutnick provides a detailed roadmap for America First AI policy, with specific technical requirements that could enable unprecedented export growth:

Policy Pillars with Technical Solutions

Location Verification for Advanced Chips: The letter specifically calls for "city- or state-level location reporting for advanced chips" with automatic notification if chips are "tampered with or diverted to the PRC." This requirement creates the foundation for proactive export control enforcement.

Compute Infrastructure Monitoring: Ensuring no more than 49% of US hyperscaler capacity operates overseas, while preventing any single non-treaty ally from hosting more than 10% of global frontier AI training compute, requires real-time infrastructure visibility.

Compute-Based Agreements: Moving from chip counts to aggregate computational power means tracking Total Compute Power (TCP) per jurisdiction and time period, requiring systems that can convert chip deployments to computational capacity.

Enhanced Security Standards: Requirements for "tamper-evident cameras and monitoring of critical components" at overseas AI data centers demand integrated security verification systems.

Training vs. Inference Detection: Keeping frontier model weights under US jurisdiction requires the ability to distinguish between training and inference workloads based on usage patterns.

The Scale Challenge: Why Traditional Approaches Fall Short

The Stargate deal's 500,000 advanced chips illustrate why existing export control systems face architectural limitations. A Business Development manager at a major OEM recently revealed: "In CEE alone, we have about 10,000 GPUs worth of projects locked because of export licenses. It kills projects as investors choose different markets where the likelihood of getting a positive response from the BIS (Bureau of Industry and Security) on a shorter turn-around time is higher."

Scale that to the Congressional vision of multiple trillion-dollar partnerships, and the bottleneck becomes clear.

The Implementation Challenge: Scale vs. Speed vs. Security

Traditional export control approaches face an impossible tradeoff for large-scale AI partnerships: you can optimize for scale, speed, or security—but not all three simultaneously. The Congressional framework demands all three.

Scale Challenge: Managing hundreds of thousands of chips across multiple international partnerships requires monitoring infrastructure that current human-oversight systems cannot provide efficiently.

Speed Challenge: To maintain the initiative and keep the technological advantage, US industry needs rapid deployment capabilities. Traditional BIS review processes, while thorough, weren't architected for the speed requirements of competitive AI markets.

Security Challenge: Maintaining export control integrity at scale while enabling the operational autonomy that international partners require creates fundamental tensions under current approaches.

The Congressional requirements suggest that hardware-based verification could be the only approach that delivers all three simultaneously.

Technical Solutions for Policy Implementation

The Congressional framework maps directly to emerging verification technologies that could enable the scale of export growth envisioned.

Real-Time Location Verification

The requirement for "city- or state-level location reporting" with automatic diversion notification points to delay-based location verification systems that measure speed-of-light travel times between chips and verification stations. This creates spoof-resistant location proof that GPS-based systems cannot match.

Compute Infrastructure Visibility

Monitoring the 49% overseas capacity limit and 10% single-partner training compute cap requires systems that can track Total Compute Power across jurisdictions in real-time. This involves converting chip deployments to computational capacity and maintaining running totals per partner nation, but also hinges heavily on the actual understanding of where the chips are.

Workload Classification

Distinguishing training from inference to keep frontier model weights under US jurisdiction requires analyzing usage patterns—burst vs. constant loads, memory access patterns, and computational intensity signatures that indicate the type of AI workload being executed in a particular jurisdiction.

Integrated Security Monitoring

The requirement for tamper-evident monitoring suggests systems where security verification is embedded directly into the compute infrastructure rather than added as an overlay, providing continuous attestation of system integrity.

The Stargate Template: Scaling Beyond Bilateral Deals

If successfully implemented, the Stargate partnership could create a replicable template for America First AI policy execution. The key insight is that verification technology doesn't just enable individual deals—it creates the infrastructure for systematic scaling.

Economic Multiplier Effects

Congressional leaders envision not just the UAE partnership, but a global ecosystem of AI partnerships that reinforce US technological leadership. Each successful deployment creates precedent for faster approval of subsequent deals.

Competitive Positioning

The letter emphasizes that "higher-income partners, such as the UAE, will be able to invest dollar-for-dollar in U.S. infrastructure, furthering U.S. AI capability and capacity." This creates a positive feedback loop where export success strengthens domestic AI development.

Standards Setting

Early implementation of verification requirements could establish technical standards that become industry norms, extending US influence through infrastructure rather than just policy.

The OpenAI for Countries Precedent

OpenAI's recent launch of "OpenAI for Countries" demonstrates the market demand for scaled international AI partnerships. The initiative suggests that leading AI companies are ready to expand globally, but need the regulatory framework and technical infrastructure to do so securely.

The Congressional requirements provide the policy framework. Verification technology provides the technical infrastructure. The combination could unlock the trillions in export opportunities that Chairman Moolenaar envisions.

Beyond Export Control: Technology as Policy Enabler

The Congressional framework suggests a fundamental shift in how export control technology is conceived. Rather than barriers to trade, verification systems become enablers of strategic partnerships that wouldn't otherwise be possible.

This approach transforms the value proposition for international partners. Instead of accepting intrusive oversight, they gain access to cutting-edge verification infrastructure that provides independent security assurance while preserving operational sovereignty. Moreover, the same underlying technology could maybe be leveraged to provide additional value, for example through data sovereignty capabilities—offering customers cryptographic proof of where their data is processed. This dual-purpose approach means verification infrastructure isn't just a compliance cost, but a value-generating asset that creates new market opportunities.

Conclusion: The Infrastructure for American AI Leadership

The Congressional framework for America First AI policy is ambitious but achievable—if the right technical infrastructure exists. The Stargate deal provides the first test case, but success requires thinking beyond individual partnerships to the systematic scaling of US AI exports.

The technical requirements are clear: location verification, compute monitoring, workload classification, and integrated security systems. The policy framework exists. The market demand is evident through a plethora of delayed projects in sensitive regions or initiatives like OpenAI for Countries.

What remains is execution. The organizations that can deliver verification technology at the scale the Congressional framework envisions will enable the next phase of American AI leadership—one where technological excellence and export growth reinforce each other rather than compete.

The trillions in potential deals that Congressional leaders envision aren't just economic opportunities—they're the foundation for an AI ecosystem that extends American technological leadership globally. The verification infrastructure to make this vision reality is the next frontier in AI policy implementation.